Currently with the expansion of the tournament to 68 teams (which is ridiculous, biased towards larger schools and makes the regular season less important), there are 67 total games. So the probability of you picking one game right is 1 out of 2. You can argue the case that it is not totally even in every case, some teams are clearly more likely to win games. Yeah, well go pick the top seed every time in your bracket, but remember to plug in your battery pack, you emotionless robot.
 |
| "What is love? And what conference is Wofford in?" |
(1/2) to the 67th power means that your chance of filling out the perfect bracket is 1: 6,776,000,000,000,000,000,000. I think the single greatest indicator that no one in the future hasn't invented a time machine is that no one has traveled back to fill out the perfect bracket. Hmmm...I wonder if anyone else has ever thought of that.
 |
Now, most of you don't have the lofty goal of filling out the perfect bracket, you'll be content with just winning that pool you're in. Usually, when talking to your friends about your bracket, you describe your chances of winning in terms of how many of your final four teams are still eligible. So if you pick the final four correctly, you probably have a good chance of winning your pool. With the expansion of the field, that probability is one in 68*67*66*65 or roughly 20 million. (Again this puts as much likely hood of a 16 seed advancing, when not a single one has won a first round game)
So aware of how futile it is to even attempt to fill out a good bracket, I channel George W Bush when I fill out my bracket: "I'm the decider." I abandon reason and make my selections on other criteria. Here's how the thought process behind some of my first round games:
High seeds vs. the play-in teams.
On sheer principle those teams shouldn't be there. Also, my hand writing is far too big to squeeze "First four #2" in that little box.
Wofford vs. BYU
I'm choosing a huge upset here, having Wofford beating BYU. Not because of the loss of Brandon Davies has distracted the team (Jimmer Fredette has asked him if it really does feel like warm apple pie like 5 times already), but simply because the Wofford basketball players celebrated winning their conference by "Moving like Bernie." Should translate to some of the best cross overs ever.
UConn v. Bucknell
Many experts are worried about UConn's grueling Big East Tournament schedule, playing 5 games in as many days. However, I'm still going with UConn. Jim Calhoun is pure evil and can only be vanquished by driving a wooden stake through his heart, removing his head from his body and filling his mouth with garlic.
North Carolina v. Long Island
UNC players will obviously have difficulty adjusting to the ball blending in with the skin color of their opponents. Ultimately, I don't think muscle milk and jagerbombs translate to skill on the basketball court. Tar heels.
Utah St. v. Kansas St.
I thought I'd try and settle this one a different way. I tried to imagine which state is more boring as a whole, Kansas or Utah. The more boring one should win the game as the players have nothing better to do than focus on basketball. After debating both sides trying to figure out which state I'd least like to live in, I left the slot blank. There are no winners in that case.
I thought I'd try and settle this one a different way. I tried to imagine which state is more boring as a whole, Kansas or Utah. The more boring one should win the game as the players have nothing better to do than focus on basketball. After debating both sides trying to figure out which state I'd least like to live in, I left the slot blank. There are no winners in that case.
No comments:
Post a Comment